My pre-season poll is not an attempt to predict where the teams will finish ranked at the end of the 2007 season. I do not factor in schedules and they obviously play a huge part in where team ends up. This is a ranking, plain and simple, of what I think the best teams are heading into the season.
1. USC – This is pretty easy. Return 10 starters on defense from an 11-2 team, throw in a far above average quarterback, one of the best coaches in college football, skill players for days and more great athletes than anyone else in the nation and you have the Trojans. Wide receiver could be a concern, but it’s a small one.
2. Florida – Early entry to the NFL bit the Gators hard again as they lose their four best defensive players prematurely to the Draft: S Reggie Nelson, LB Brandon Siler, DE Jarvis Moss and CB Ryan Smith. Florida will be without nine starters on defense, but the offense may well improve with Tim Tebow taking over at QB who’s a much more natural fit for Urban Meyer’s offense. If WR Percy Harvin can stay healthy, watch out. The BCS title game proved the Gators are bad and nationwide.
3. LSU – despite the early loss of QB JaMarcus Russell, the Tigers still have an abundance of great athletes. DT Glenn Dorsey would have been a first round draft pick had he left, but he’s back and combined with LB Ali Highsmith and five years worth of great recruiting classes, the Tigers should be stout defensively. Senior Matt Flynn and Sophomore Ryan Perrilloux will battle for the QB job and whoever wins it will do well to find WR Keiland Williams often. LSU’s biggest loss may be offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher.
4. Michigan – QB Chad Henne, RB Michael Hart and WR Mario Manningham form the nation’s best skill group offensively. Eight heavy contributors are gone from a defense that gave up almost 80 points in its last two games.
5. Wisconsin – This can’t be right, but it is. The Badgers lose their QB John Stocco and the best offensive lineman in college football, Joe Thomas, but 19 starters return so both the offense and defense are in great shape. Stocco isn’t the sort of irreplaceable talent a Vince Young was and with RB P.J. Hill, Wisconsin is set for some more ground and pound.
6. Texas – QB Colt McCoy has a full year of starting experience under his belt and with a bushel barrel full of offensive skill people, the Horns will score points. UT has some significant loses on the offensive line and in the secondary, but years of great recruiting should fill those holes adequately.
7. West Virginia – QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton return and that’s about all you need to know. The offensive line must replace the exceptional Dan Mozes at center and the defense is limited athletically, but with White and Slaton running Rich Rodriguez’ spread-option to perfection, the Mountaineers are a force.
8. Ohio State – Do you know who Todd Boeckman and Rob Schoenhoft are? By September 1st you will because one of them will be named the Bucks starting QB and have to replace Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. The defense is loaded with future NFL players and figures to be rock solid and it better be because the offense loses four big playmakers: Smith, WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez and RB Michael Pittman. RB Chris Wells is spectacular and will be leaned on heavily.
9. Virginia Tech – Everything is in place except a solid quarterback which is dangerous. The Hokies return the nation’s top linebacking duo – Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi – to a ferocious defense, Brandon Ore is a difference maker at tailback and the selfishness and in-fighting that plagued Tech in the middle of last year seemed to subside by the close of the season. The Hokies ultimate success depends on the ability of Sean Glennon or Ike Whitaker to excel at QB.
10. Arkansas – The starting quarterback (Casey Dick) returns as does the runner-up in the Heisman Trophy voting Darren McFadden. McFadden and Felix Jones form the nation’s best RB tandem and WR Marcus Monk is as good as anyone. The offensive line loses three standouts in T Tony Ugoh, T Zac Tubbs and G Jeremy Hafrell while the defense will be without pass rush specialist Jamaal Anderson who left early for the NFL. My number one question for the Hogs is how will all the Gus Malzahn/Mitch Mustain/Springdale High drama and the in-fighting among the Arkansas athletic department and community it has caused influence the team?
11. Florida State – The Seminoles’ problems the past several seasons weren’t talent related, they were coaching related. Incompetent offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden is out as is his equally ridiculous sidekick and QB coach Daryl Dickey, they’re replaced by one of the top guys in the business, LSU’s Jimbo Fisher. The OL coach was axed as well in favor of West Virginia’s highly thought of Rick Trickett. Look for this new offensive staff to have the Noles’ great athletes finally making plays again. Defensively, FSU loses two outstanding LBs (Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons), but returns almost everyone else of significance as well as an old familiar face, former assistant coach Chuck Amato back from N.C. State.
12. Cal – QB Nate Longshore, RB Justin Faucett and the dynamic WR/KR DeShaun Jackson will make coach Jeff Tedford’s offense again prolific, but how the Bears deal with the loss of the guts of their defense – DT Brandon Mebane, LB Desmond Bishop and DB Daymeion Hughes – will determine how far they go.
13. Oklahoma – QB is a huge concern with three totally unproven players vying for the starting role. Of near equal concern is the loss of five outstanding players off the front seven defensively. Bob Stoops survived last season without suspended QB Rhett Bomar and injured RB Adrian Peterson so I’ll put my faith in him.
14. Boston College – The Eagles are so isolated from college football’s hotbeds hidden away in the baseball obsessed Northeast they become easy to forget about. New coach Jeff Jagodzinski comes from Green Bay where he was the Packers’ offensive coordinator and Tom O’Brien left him a full cupboard including the ACC’s top QB, Matt Ryan, seven other returning starters on offense and nine returning starters on defense.
15. Georgia – QB Matthew Stafford took his lumps as a freshman, but those lessons should pay off this season. Four starters must be replaced on the OL as well as both DEs, but the Dawgs appeared to have chemistry, character and work ethic issues to me in ’06 and I think clearing out some old players for some new may be beneficial.
16. Louisville – QB Brian Brohm figures to be the nation’s best and that’s a good place to start. Offensively, the Cardinals ought to be in fine shape despite the early loss of super RB Michael Bush to the NFL. Defensively, UL loses numerous key contributors. Louisville has done better than you might think in recruiting so if new coach Steve Kragthorpe can take the baton effectively from the departed Bobby Petrino, another 10-win season should be realistic.
17. Auburn – Losing four starting offensive lineman and electric RB Kenny Irons puts the Tigers in a hole off the bat, but Brad Lester soothes the loss of Irons and Brandon Cox will be starting at QB for his third year. A ton of speed and athletes on defense is a plus, unproven pass catchers is a minus.
18. UCLA – Ten starters return on offense and nine on defense for a team that showed flashes of brilliance last year (13-9 win over USC). Despite that, the Bruins have been marred by inconsistency throughout Karl Dorrell’s tenure and have yet to prove they belong among the nation’s elite yearly. QBs Pat Cowen and Ben Olsen will compete for the starting job.
19. Texas A&M – QB Stephen McGee and RBs Javorskie Lane and Mike Goodman are absolute game-breakers. The young Aggies lost three heartbreaking conference games by a total of six points last season. The passing game and defense still need major work, but Dennis Franchione finally seems to be getting some traction in College Station.
20. Nebraska – Arizona State transfer Sam Keller replaces Zac Taylor at QB and with RB Marlon Lucky running behind four returning lineman the Huskers should move the ball. RB Brandon Jackson left early for the NFL and that hurts, but not as much as losing all four starting DL and your leading tackler, LB Stewart Bradley.
21. Rutgers – RB Ray Rice is premiere, but QB Mike Teel was ordinary, at best, last season. The talent level continues to rise behind Greg Schiano, but the Scarlet Knights won’t be sneaking up on anyone in ’07.
22. Tennessee – Offensive coordinator David Cutcliff returned some sanity to the Vols after a 5-6 2005 season and he’ll be working again with excellent senior QB Erik Ainge. Three good RBs – LaMarcus Coker, Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty – will have to replace three outstanding departed WRs – Robert Meachem, Jayson Swain and Bret Smith. One of the top returners on defense, S Demetrice Morley, has already been booted off the team for grades, not a good sign for a program with a rash of off-field trouble in recent years.
23. Penn State – If QB Anthony Morelli plays like he did against Tennessee in the Outback Bowl, this may be too low. RB Michael Hunt, OT Levi Brown, LB Paul Posluszny and most of the defensive front will be hard to replace.
24. South Carolina – All, but four starters return for the Gamecocks and Steve Spurrier seems to finally have settled on a QB with Blake Mitchell. Losing WR Sidney Rice early to the NFL is a blow, but this team finished last season strong and was just inches from beating Auburn and Florida.
25. Kentucky – Yes, I’m being serious. QB Andre Woodson is one of the five best players at his position in the country and WR Keenan Burton and RB Tony Dixon are upper-division SEC good. Defense is a concern, as always, but the lion’s share of contributors from ’06 return for ’07.
Just for laughs, here was my January pre-season ranking last year, followed by how they finished the season ranked by the Associated Press:
#1 – Notre Dame (NR)
#2 – Ohio State (2)
#3 – Texas (13)
#4 – USC (4)
#5 – Cal (14)
#6 – Florida (1)
#7 – LSU (3)
#8 – West Virginia (10)
#9 – Oklahoma (11)
#10 – Iowa (NR)
#11 – Auburn (8)
#12 – Miami (NR)
#13 – Louisville (7)
#14 – Virginia Tech (18)
