SCOTT on:

   LSU in BCS '07

I see it.

I don’t believe it, but I see it.

LSU will be playing for the national championship after all.

The team that had no coach as of noon on Saturday. The team that today has no defensive coordinator. The team whose starting quarterback is out injured. The team whose top defensive player is out injured. The team that lost 10 days ago, for the second time. The team that was twice ranked #1 and twice lost shortly there after has yet another chance at finishing #1.

LSU got a second chance and blew it, now the Tigers get a last chance against Ohio State, in New Orleans of all places.

The question today raging around college football is: do they deserve it?

My answer is “no.”

Let me explain.

For starters, I’m not writing this just to drive LSU fans crazy or make a name for myself. As long as I’ve been commenting for Tigerbait.com, I’ve put one thing above all others: honesty. You get my honest opinion whether I think you’ll like it or not. I’m sure you won’t like this, but remember, I’m an SEC fan, I went to an SEC school, I live in the South and I like LSU, but honesty comes first.

The way I see it, 11 teams have some kind of argument for inclusion into the national championship game. Those teams are all the one and two loss BCS conference teams – Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, USC, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona State, West Virginia – and undefeated Hawaii.

So, how do you best and most logically go from 11 to two?

You do it as simply, as easily and as formulaic as possible.

You do it by first looking at SCHEDULE, then looking at NUMBER OF LOSES, then HOME LOSES, then WHO YOU LOST TO and finally HOW YOU LOST.

It’s simple, it’s easy and you can apply it evenly to all teams.

We’ll start taking 11 down to two by eliminating those teams whose SCHEDULES aren’t among the top two-thirds of Division 1 (Football Bowl Subdivision for you ninnies out there). College football must reward those programs who play the toughest opponents. Good teams playing good teams is best for the popularity and health of the game, and if the point of college football was just to go undefeated, no one would schedule anyone difficult.

Cowardice in scheduling cannot be rewarded by granting national championship shots to teams who make it a practice to duck top competition.

With 120 Division 1 schools, any school with a strength of schedule below #80 is out. Bye-bye Hawaii (#117) and Kansas (#81).

Hawaii will complain that no one is willing to play them, but that’s their problem to figure out, not mine, and no team should play for a national championship with Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern on the schedule.

Eliminating those teams whose schedules aren’t at a championship caliber, our field of 11 is now down to nine.

Next, let’s move on to NUMBER OF LOSES. This is easy. Among the teams remaining, Ohio State has one loss, all the others have two.

Ohio State is in the national championship game based on that alone. The object is to win and the Buckeyes have a higher winning percentage than anyone else left.

Eleven teams have been cut to nine, now we’ve selected one for the title game leaving us with eight schools remaining for one spot.

Here’s where I make a huge distinction from most people and where I’m sure many of you will disagree with me.

My next disqualifying factor is HOME LOSES.

If you lose at home, that’s a loss-and-a-half in my opinion.

That eliminates USC, Arizona State, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech and LSU.

I realize Ohio State lost at home also, but it has fewer loses than all of those other teams and the situation this year is unique. When I compare the relative merits of teams with the same number of loses, I first look to the number of home loses.

If you’re not able to beat everyone at your place, what makes you think you deserve a chance to beat the next best team on a neutral field?

If you can’t win your home games, leave me alone.

With six of our remaining eight two loss teams knocked out because they allowed someone to walk into their home stadium and slap their momma, we’re left with Oklahoma and Missouri.

Our next eliminator is WHO YOU LOST TO. Any team that lost to a sub-.500 team doesn’t belong in the national title game. If you can’t beat all the bad teams on your schedule, why would you think you’re the best team in the country?

Missouri’s two loses came to 11-2 Oklahoma, no shame there, and Oklahoma’s two loses came to 6-6 Colorado and 8-4 Texas Tech, fine.

That’s a wash so we move finally to HOW YOU LOST.

Missouri lost to Oklahoma by 10 and then 21. Double-digit loses aren’t close, if you get hammered, you lose your right to play for the national championship. Missouri got hammered. Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost at Colorado by three and at Texas Tech by seven. Two loses, on the road, in conference, by a touchdown or less.

When you apply logic and reason and a clear formula, and do so dispassionately, Oklahoma comes out on top. It’s loses are the best, if you’d like to use that term, of all the two loss teams.

Now I can’t stand Oklahoma and generally think the Big 12 is inferior to the SEC and Pac-10, but the Sooners deserve it.

For the other bellyachers, stuff a sock in it.

Georgia, you were beaten at home, you were given a pounding the most hardened lifer at Folsom would grimace at by Tennessee, and while you may be playing the best football in the country right now, that doesn’t matter. National championship spots are awarded for who has had the best season, not who has had the best last half season. The great thing about college football is each week matters. Even though they happened when it was still warm out, Georgia had some bad weeks. Who’s hot at the end has never figured into who plays for the national championship in college football, nor should it.

USC, you lost at home to Stanford, do another line of blow, take your hot girlfriend to the Whiskey and never complain about what you don’t have, you have it all.

West Virginia? All you had to do was beat a 4-7 Pitt team at home, you couldn’t do it; you don’t deserve to play the big room.

Arizona State was beaten soundly twice including once at home, out of the question.

Virginia Tech, like Georgia, is playing great right now, but I still remember you being disemboweled by LSU and losing at home to Boston College.

That brings us to the Tigers.

I don’t buy Les Miles’ two overtime loses equals one regular loss philosophy, that’s absurd. You lost. Twice. One of those came at home. You have the most talented team in the country, you should be in the national championship game, but you don’t deserve to be. Oklahoma does, the Sooners did more to earn it, or more specifically, less to blow it.

I’m not bothered by LSU being in the title game, anyone with a loss gives up their right to complain too loudly, but from where I sit, Oklahoma was more deserving than LSU of playing for it all.